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Psychological Challenges of Speculative Trading
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The most difficult process is adjusting the human psychological factor, because in real life it is impossible to completely get rid of the psychological factor influencing human activity.

I think it is very important for the reader of this book to follow me in creating the method, beginning with the definition and identification of the problems that need to be solved. Then, after initial ideas are formed, we will continue to the development of effective trade principles and the creation of an integrated conception of systematic trading methods. I would like each trader to understand the essence and logic of my method, which allows a transition from vague emotions and desires to specific targets, in order to develop an effective trading technique. I think this approach to training is the best. It allows the trader to not only follow my line of thought but also, using the information acquired in this book, to extend each trader's individual (not only professional) experience, with the aim of critically evaluating the acquired information.

For this reason, I decided to violate the traditionally taught sequence of many books, manuals, and training aids, and state my book in the sequence of the development of my method. The first chapter (Chapter 4) in Part II is dedicated to trader psychology. The psychological problems shared by many traders will be addressed, and the conclusion will be proven that it is necessary to switch to a systematic trading method without forming a rigid mechanical trading system. This desire, and the necessity to get rid of the excessive and permanent psychological stress that negatively influences the results of my everyday trading, inspired me to develop the new systematic trading method I will present in this book.

In Chapter 5, the initial requirements for the optimal trade methods and the consequent trade systems are formulated. Next, some basic elements for the trade method development are described - using trading tools corresponding to the basic principles of effective trading. Along with my own ideas and elaboration, they will be used as the basic components of effective trading described in Chapter 7.

Each trader goes through mistakes, failures, and losses in his or her own way and in accordance with his or her personality and temper.

successful trader's career mainly depends on his or her psychological stability in stressful situations, which are common in the process of trading. Theoretical knowledge can be acquired by reading professional literature; practical skills and experience are acquired in the process of actual trading. The most difficult process is adjusting psychological stress, because in real life it is impossible to completely eliminate the stress factor influencing human activity. Underestimating the stress factor could play a mean trick on traders and even completely block their abilities to make reasonable decisions in real trading situations. The psychological stress of those trading in the FOREX (and any other) market is extremely high. Traders must work under permanent psychological pressure, making decisions in highly unpredictable and uncertain market situations.

Each trader goes through mistakes, failures, and losses in his or her own way, in accordance with his or her personality and temper. Some might blame their failures on the market's "wrong behavior," which didn't comply with the trader's brilliant forecast and caused the failure of the magnificently planned speculative combination. Others blame themselves and their own inabilities to make right decisions in situations, which after­wards seem to be simple. It is an interesting fact that, in hindsight, traders usually find the decision that should have been made at the lost critical moment and can reasonably prove their point of view. Why can they find the right decision so easily and quickly in hindsight? Was the trader unable to do so at the right moment? I don't think it can be simply explained by looking at yesterday's situation from today's point of view. I do not think it can be explained by the fact that classical technical analysis allows for multiple explanations of almost any market situation. It is always possible to find an appropriate basic explanation for any market shift after the event takes place. In the heat of the moment, however, the trader was influenced by stress, and that stress caused the error. This is proven by the fact that most novice traders show exceptionally good (and even phe­nomenal) results trading dummy accounts but can't even come near those results when trading with real money.

Being permanently under stress, a trader can often make insufficiently considered, impulsive, and, therefore, wrong decisions that result in losses or premature liquidation of profitable positions, that is, in lost profit. Sometimes, after a few successive failures with various trades, traders becomes fearful of the market. They are in a state of psychological stupor, and even a simple market situation may cause panic. They cannot overcome their emotions or soberly evaluate the current situation, and they are unable to make any decision—reasonable or otherwise. In many cases when the market situation shifts against the trader's position, they can only passively watch the growth of their losses, because they are unable to make any decision at all. Often, after the market stabilizes and traders have the opportunity to calmly analyze daily diagrams of currency fluctuations, they come to the conclusion that the main cause of failure was not the lack of knowledge or training but their own emotions. How­ever, the situation cannot be reversed. Time has passed, money has been lost, and everything should be begun again.

Another problem that causes severe and even catastrophic consequences is the trader's wishful thinking. In this case, traders are sure that their forecast of market trends is solely correct. They feel the market can­not and should not give any surprises. They do not consider other options that could be helpful or they think of other options in a vague and uncertain form. Sometimes, traders consider a market shift against their posi­tion as short-term and temporary. They begin to average their positions. They acquire new contracts at a lower price in the hope that the market situation will come back, and all the positions will become highly profitable. Afterwards, as the situation worsens, they will be able to come out of the market without serious losses. Being sure they are right, traders lose the ability to critically evaluate the condition of the market and accordingly their own position in the market. In this case, they consider only those basic and technical features that justify their wishful thinking, and they discard the contradicting features. This wishful thinking costs them dearly and can lead to psychological frustration. The market's "wrong behavior" not only deprives traders of a certain amount of money and often ruins their trading account, but also undermines their self-esteem and their hopes of being a winner in the trading battle.

After such a loss, traders blame themselves, repeatedly going through the details of the unsuccessful trade. They blame the market for the "wrong behavior" or themselves for errors in what then seems an ab­solutely clear situation. Sometimes, the trader-market relationship takes the form of a vendetta. Traders consider the market as their personal enemy, treat it in an unfriendly way (even with hate) and dream of immediate revenge. Doing so, they miss the fact that they are essentially blaming nature for changing sunny weather to rain. It is very important to be prepared beforehand for this change. Trades should always have close at hand one or a few options in case of sudden change of the situation/weather, so that their foresight assures their good time or good profit.

The third main psychological problem is trader uncertainty, especially when traders are inexperienced in abilities and skills—specifically about each market position they hold. Immediately after each position is opened and a money contract is bought, traders start questioning their choices. This is revealed most vividly in the case of a moderately active market at the moment of fluctuations close to the opening price of the position. Any movement (even insignificant) against their position causes traders to have an irresistible desire to sell the recently acquired contract to limit losses, until it is too late and the market does not shift too far away from their position opening price. On the other hand, an insignificant market shift in the desirable direction causes the same desire to eliminate the position, until it provides for any (even tiny) profit and before this profit does not turn into losses.

Scared and troubled traders rush and race about. They open and liquidate their positions too often, and experience many small losses and gains. Within a short period of time, they turn intermittently into bulls or bears. As a result, they suffer losses on a dealer's spread and/or commissions when there were no significant market changes, and all the market fluctuations were no more than just regular market "noise." Such losses are typical for beginners and individual traders with small investment capital or little experience and insufficient psychological preparation.

Not uncommon are cases of traders' impulsive decisions on trading, without any plans or serious preliminary market analysis. The position is opened under an impulsive, invalid emotional reaction. Often, it can be explained by traders' fears of losing a brilliant opportunity to earn money they think is being offered by the market at that moment. I have witnessed these attempts to jump onto the last carriage of a departing train, and such attempts have ruined a lot of traders. Many traders cannot calmly watch any kind of market movements. Some of my students have confirmed this reality. If they have no positions at the moment of more or less significant market movement, they consider it as a lost opportunity to gain profit. This can inflict a serious shock to them.

When they have no position, they seem unable to realize that each market movement can be considered both ways, and the opposite situation can quite possibly develop. Statistics show that, at each market movement, the chances to lose are much higher than to profit. How does it happen that reasonable people (who in everyday life, without any emo­tion, can watch a bank cashier counting other people's money) consider the fact of market movement as a threat to their own pockets? Why is other people's money in the hands of a bank cashier not considered as a lost profit, whereas capital shift on the market and the corresponding quote fluctuations are the causes of negative emotions? I think the answer is in the illusory simplicity of business itself, which is considered by many people as a good and simple opportunity to earn a lot of easy money. Similar notions are widely spread among novice currency traders. The soon traders abandon such ideas, the sooner they become professionally efficient traders.

The most difficult problem for every trader (regardless of their experiences) is to learn as quickly as possible how to recover quickly from losses, which are inevitable in this business. At the same time, they must learn to handle shocks and psychological damage inflicted by the losses, because these situations could negatively influence their future work.

The losses themselves and the fear of losing, both of which permanently torture traders, negatively influence their ability to make reasonable decisions in a complicated situation. These factors also undermine traders' ability to follow their own rules about trade strategies and systems.

I have become personally acquainted with hundreds of traders and have watched their activities. I have taught many students, and have had my own experience as a trader at various steps of my career in the currency market. Therefore, I have come to the conclusion that the main causes of trader failures in speculative operations in the FOREX market are without a doubt those associated with psychological trauma—the inability to control their own emotions and to find an adequate way to fight stress.

I have explored ways of solving the psychological problems that arise from operations in the FOREX market, with the focus on increasing self- resistance to stressful situations and increasing trade effectiveness. As a result of my research, I have managed to develop a trading method that also helps to withstand shocks and keep emotions under control. To solve the problem of stress, I had to separate the problem into several parts and solve them one by one.

First, it was necessary to develop the philosophical conception of my attitude toward market situations. By this I mean not only the general trade methods, which are discussed in the second part of the course, but also my own conception of the market and associated psychological problems, which most traders (including myself) have to overcome daily. The following formula is essential for my conception: I can't be wrong if I don't have an opinion.

I had this in mind as I thought about how to avoid unwanted stress and emotions that are associated with trading. When you find a way to make reasonable decisions not based on your own opinion about future market trends but in accordance with certain market signals, the problem of diminishing and almost completely eliminating psychological pressure and stress will be solved. The key issue in this case is a philosophical attitude about market trends—they are natural phenomena beyond human control and forecast.

The trick was to develop a secure and effective trade strategy that could advantageously use these natural phenomena. This formula seemed logical and could provide the basis for the development of a conceptual trading strategy. In reality, however, this job took considerable time. Nevertheless, the formula was used as a base for the development of my system-trade methods that I called the method of discrete-systematic trading.

Moving from the basic formula and general philosophical idea through intermediate conclusions, I came to the development of the trade method. This method provides for trading practically without emotions, and it became a very effective and profitable tool to earning money in currency speculations.

The logical chain of my arguments and intermediate conclusions is the following:

Idea 1. The main source of negative emotions and stresses is the unfulfilled trader's forecast, based on the trader's notion about market future trends.

Idea 2. To avoid unnecessary emotions and psychological pressure, it is better to completely abandon any notion about market future trends because this notion itself forms the forecast, which could be wrong.

Idea 3. The basic idea of the formula "I cannot be wrong if I don't have an opinion" transfers the moral obligation for trading results from the trader to the market. Now, the fluctuation of the market can be considered as a manifestation of the so-called "God's Will" or "Force of Nature," so the trader cannot be responsible for that.

Idea 4. It is possible to abandon attempts to make forecasts and still have a profit only if one stops trying to foresee market trends but follows them instead.

Idea 5. It is possible to follow market fluctuations using only the sys­tem-trade method and developing a trading strategy providing effective monitoring of these fluctuations.

Idea 6. One of the best methods of this approach could be the one pro­viding the objective evaluation of the possibility of the market's movements at any moment in both possible directions.

Following this simple thought pattern, I was able to come to a final conclusion, which is shown in the box that follows.

Conclusion

The easiest way of solving psychological problems is to abandon attempts to trade on the basis of personal notion and forecast. Only the system trade, while making decisions automatically according to the preset plan, provides this opportunity. Turning to the system trade helps to solve the problem by decreasing psychological pressure on the trader and avoiding a lot of mistakes associated with psychological stress. The system trade itself not only helps traders to make operational decisions to increase profit; it also provides great psychological comfort necessary for the trader.

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